SupaPark Data — Prediction Accuracy
Over the last 30 days (2026-08-10 to 2026-09-09), SupaPark's served ride-wait predictions missed the actual posted wait by an average of 8.1 minutes across 131,612 graded predictions, and park-level forecasts missed by an average of 9.1 across 13,789 graded predictions — graded against what actually happened, misses included.
Of the 131,612 graded ride predictions that carried a confidence band, the actual value fell inside the served band 79% of the time.
| Park | Mean absolute error (min) | Graded predictions |
|---|---|---|
| Magic Kingdom | 9.1 | 35,929 |
| EPCOT | 7.8 | 33,552 |
| Disney's Hollywood Studios | 9.9 | 31,719 |
| Disney's Animal Kingdom | 5.3 | 30,412 |
The largest ride-wait prediction errors on record in this window — included on purpose, not filtered out.
| Date | Park | Ride | Predicted (min) | Actual (min) | Error (min) | Lead (days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 16:00 | Magic Kingdom | Space Mountain | 39 | 171.3 | 132.3 | 4 |
| 2026-08-06 16:00 | Magic Kingdom | Space Mountain | 39 | 171.3 | 132.3 | 7 |
| 2026-08-06 16:00 | Magic Kingdom | Space Mountain | 41 | 171.3 | 130.3 | 3 |
| 2026-08-06 16:00 | Magic Kingdom | Space Mountain | 42 | 171.3 | 129.3 | 2 |
| 2026-08-06 16:00 | Magic Kingdom | Space Mountain | 43 | 171.3 | 128.3 | 6 |
| 2026-08-06 16:00 | Magic Kingdom | Space Mountain | 43 | 171.3 | 128.3 | 1 |
| 2026-08-07 12:00 | Disney's Hollywood Studios | Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance | 57 | 184.2 | 127.2 | 4 |
| 2026-08-06 14:00 | Magic Kingdom | Space Mountain | 40 | 163.3 | 123.3 | 4 |
| 2026-08-06 17:00 | Magic Kingdom | Space Mountain | 41 | 164 | 123 | 3 |
| 2026-08-06 14:00 | Magic Kingdom | Space Mountain | 41 | 163.3 | 122.3 | 7 |
| 2026-08-06 14:00 | Magic Kingdom | Space Mountain | 41 | 163.3 | 122.3 | 6 |
| 2026-08-06 17:00 | Magic Kingdom | Space Mountain | 42 | 164 | 122 | 7 |
| 2026-08-06 17:00 | Magic Kingdom | Space Mountain | 42 | 164 | 122 | 6 |
| 2026-08-06 17:00 | Magic Kingdom | Space Mountain | 42 | 164 | 122 | 4 |
| 2026-08-06 14:00 | Magic Kingdom | Space Mountain | 42 | 163.3 | 121.3 | 3 |
These numbers come straight from SupaPark's forward-grading log (forward_accuracy): every prediction SupaPark made is later compared to what actually happened and scored, model_version v1 only — the model version actually SERVED to users. (SupaPark also runs an internal pre-blend research lane, v1_pure, used for model development; it is not included on this page.) "Predicted" and "actual" are the ride's predicted vs. observed average posted wait in minutes at that hour; "error" is the absolute difference. Park-level rows use the same predicted-vs-actual grading applied to park-wide forecasts.
data.csv (biggest misses)data.json (full summary)
Free to reuse with attribution — see the license.