SupaParkSupaPark Data — Prediction Accuracy
How accurate are SupaPark's predictions?
Over the last 30 days (2026-09-24 to 2026-10-25), SupaPark's served ride-wait predictions missed the actual posted wait by an average of 7.7 minutes across 90,293 graded predictions, and park-level forecasts missed by an average of 9.7 minutes across 13,647 graded predictions — graded against what actually happened, misses included.
- 7.7 minaverage miss, ride-wait predictions (90,293 graded)
- 9.7 minaverage miss, park-level forecasts (13,647 graded)
- 85%of actuals inside the served confidence band
Of the 90,293 graded ride predictions that carried a confidence band, the actual value fell inside the served band 85% of the time.
By park (ride-wait predictions)
| # | Park | Mean absolute error (min) | Graded predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Disney's Hollywood Studios | 8.1 min | 24,823 |
| 2 | EPCOT | 7.9 min | 24,463 |
| 3 | Magic Kingdom | 7.7 min | 23,970 |
| 4 | Disney's Animal Kingdom | 6.9 min | 17,037 |
Biggest misses, last 30 days
The largest ride-wait prediction errors on record in this window — included on purpose, not filtered out.
| Date | Park | Ride | Predicted (min) | Actual (min) | Error (min) | Lead (days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 13:00 | Magic Kingdom | TRON Lightcycle / Run | 54 | 150 | 96 | 2 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 | Magic Kingdom | TRON Lightcycle / Run | 56 | 150 | 94 | 6 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 | Magic Kingdom | TRON Lightcycle / Run | 57 | 150 | 93 | 1 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 | Magic Kingdom | TRON Lightcycle / Run | 57 | 150 | 93 | 7 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 | Magic Kingdom | TRON Lightcycle / Run | 57 | 150 | 93 | 3 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 | Magic Kingdom | TRON Lightcycle / Run | 58 | 150 | 92 | 5 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 | Disney's Hollywood Studios | Toy Story Mania! | 38 | 125 | 87 | 7 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 | Disney's Hollywood Studios | Toy Story Mania! | 38 | 125 | 87 | 1 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 | Disney's Hollywood Studios | Toy Story Mania! | 40 | 125 | 85 | 6 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 | Disney's Hollywood Studios | Toy Story Mania! | 40 | 125 | 85 | 5 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 | Disney's Hollywood Studios | Toy Story Mania! | 41 | 125 | 84 | 2 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 | Disney's Hollywood Studios | Toy Story Mania! | 42 | 125 | 83 | 4 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 | Magic Kingdom | TRON Lightcycle / Run | 54 | 136.7 | 82.7 | 2 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 | Magic Kingdom | TRON Lightcycle / Run | 55 | 136.7 | 81.7 | 6 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 | EPCOT | Soarin' Across America | 28 | 109.2 | 81.2 | 7 |
How this is measured
These numbers come straight from SupaPark's forward-grading log (forward_accuracy): every prediction SupaPark made is later compared to what actually happened and scored, model_version v1 only — the model version actually SERVED to users. (SupaPark also runs an internal pre-blend research lane, v1_pure, used for model development; it is not included on this page.) "Predicted" and "actual" are the ride's predicted vs. observed average posted wait in minutes at that hour; "error" is the absolute difference. Park-level rows use the same predicted-vs-actual grading applied to park-wide forecasts.
Download this data
data.csv (biggest misses)data.json (full summary)
Free to reuse with attribution — see the license.