One definition per number. Every SupaPark data page that states one of these metrics uses the definition below, word for word, and links back here. Last reviewed Oct 12, 2026.
On this page: Posted wait · Monthly posted-wait figures · Posted wait vs day-ahead forecast · SupaPark Real Wait · Lightning Lane sellout · Lightning Lane Sellout Index · Lightning Lane Multi Pass price · Ride downtime · Dining reservation drop · Prediction error
Disney's posted standby wait for a ride, as shown in its app, read by SupaPark about every 5 minutes. Readings are averaged per ride per half hour (open readings only); one open half-hour of one ride is one "slot". Posted waits are measured, not estimated.
Source table: wait_times (raw, 30-day retention) → wait_halfhour_archive (durable half-hour archive)
For a ride and month: the mean posted wait is the average of its open half-hour slots; "60+ minute share" is the share of those slots whose average posted wait was 60 minutes or more; the peak hour is the hour of day (Eastern) with the highest average posted wait, among hours with at least 10 slots. A ride is ranked only with at least 100 open half-hours in the month. Every figure is a slot-weighted sum over the cells CSV.
Source table: wait_halfhour_archive
For a ride and month: SupaPark's served forecast made one day ahead for each ride and hour, compared with the average posted wait later observed in that hour. Mean absolute error is the average size of the miss in minutes; bias is the average of forecast minus posted (positive = the forecast ran high).
Source table: forward_accuracy (kind = 'ride', model_version = 'v1', lead_days = 1)
An estimate of the wait a guest actually stands in, shown on /real-wait: the live posted wait multiplied by a ratio of timed (actual) wait to posted wait for that ride or ride type, hour and posted-wait band. The ratios are fitted on TouringPlans' public 2018-2019 user-timed wait dataset, collected before Lightning Lane existed; SupaPark does not time queues itself. It is a modeled estimate and is not used in SupaPark's data reports.
Source table: wait_correction_factors (model v1), fitted on the public TouringPlans dataset (touringplans_observations)
A Lightning Lane "sellout" is the first minute after 7:00 AM Eastern when no return times are left and fewer than 10% of the following hour has any; that minute is the sellout time. A day where nothing was left at 7:00 AM (or in the hour before) counts as "gone before 7 AM" rather than as a time. Short re-releases from cancellations after a sellout do not undo it. Days with a collection gap, or when the ride itself reported being down near the sellout, are left out, so a breakdown is never counted as a sellout. The "median sellout time" is taken over days that sold out after 7:00 AM only; "sold-out days" counts both kinds. Every number comes from the same daily table (ll_sellout_daily) on every SupaPark page.
Source table: ll_sellout_daily (one row per ride per park day)
For one ride: the share of measured park days in the last 31 days (today excluded) on which its Lightning Lane ran out, either gone before 7 AM or sold out during the day, from 0 (never) to 100 (every day). Rides with fewer than 14 measured days are listed but not ranked. The resort-wide index is sold-out ride-days divided by measured ride-days across the ranked rides. Same window and rows as each ride's sellout page.
Source table: ll_sellout_daily via scripts/ll-sellout/summary.mjs
Disney's price for one guest's Lightning Lane Multi Pass at one park on one date, as returned by Disney's own purchase availability service. SupaPark captures every date on sale about once an hour. A park day's "final price" is the price in the last capture of that date; its first-seen price is the earliest capture. Averages are plain means of final prices. Dates with no capture are listed as gaps, never filled in.
Source table: multi_pass_prices (hourly captures) → v_multi_pass_price_current
The share of a ride's status checks that read closed, counted only inside its operating window: from its first to its last open reading within the park's scheduled hours that day (on hard-ticket party nights, the day-guest hours). Ten-minute stretches when most of the park's rides read closed at once (a park closure, weather, a party changeover) are excluded for every ride, a day with no scheduled hours is skipped, and a ride never seen open that day (refurbishment) is left out rather than scored 100% down.
Source table: ride_status_snapshots + park_hours (rollupDowntime in scripts/data-hub/compute.mjs)
A reservation or walk-up availability opening detected by SupaPark's Drop Watch: a slot that was not bookable and then was (a new release or a cancellation). Counts are drop events, not distinct reservation dates.
Source table: live_events (event_type = 'dining_drop')
The absolute difference, in minutes, between the wait SupaPark predicted for a ride and hour and the posted wait later observed for that ride and hour, for the model version actually served to users. Mean absolute error is the average over every graded prediction, misses included.
Source table: forward_accuracy (model_version = 'v1')