Holiday crowd outlook · Thanksgiving 2026
Thanksgiving week 2026 (Nov 21–Nov 29, 2026) is outside SupaPark's detailed crowd forecast, which currently runs through Nov 11, 2026. Our long-range model, which is directional and not yet graded day by day, puts the week at an average crowd level of 8.2/10 across the four parks — busier than the rest of November in the same model (5.9/10). Busiest day: Thu Nov 26 (9.5); lightest: Sun Nov 29 (6.5).
Data as of Oct 12, 2026, 1:33 PM ET. Source: SupaPark's served crowd forecast.
Thanksgiving week runs from the Saturday before the holiday through the Sunday after it — the window when many US school districts schedule their fall break. This page tracks Thanksgiving week 2026 — Nov 21–Nov 29, 2026 — day by day for all four parks.
Forecast status: SupaPark's detailed forecast currently runs through Nov 11, 2026, so Thanksgiving week is not in it yet. The remaining days use our long-range model: a per-park estimate that is directional — good for ranking days against each other — but not graded day by day and with no wait-minute forecast. Expect detailed numbers for Thanksgiving week from around Oct 22, 2026; this page refreshes every hour and switches over automatically.
| Date | Magic Kingdom | EPCOT | Hollywood Studios | Animal Kingdom | Average | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 21 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7.8 | Long-range |
| Sun Nov 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7.3 | Long-range |
| Mon Nov 23 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8.5 | Long-range |
| Tue Nov 24 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7.5 | Long-range |
| Wed Nov 25 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | Long-range |
| Thu Nov 26 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9.5 | Long-range |
| Fri Nov 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | Long-range |
| Sat Nov 28 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8.8 | Long-range |
| Sun Nov 29 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6.5 | Long-range |
Averaged over the four parks, Thanksgiving week 2026 sits at 8.2/10, against 5.9/10 for the other 10 long-range forecast days of November — busier than the rest of the month by 2.3 levels. EPCOT is the busiest park of the window (9.4/10) and Magic Kingdom the lightest (7.2/10).
SupaPark's permanent half-hour wait archive starts on Jul 17, 2026, so we do not have a measured Thanksgiving from a previous year — and we will not invent one. What we do have are this year's holiday weekends: across Labor Day weekend 2026 (Sep 5–Sep 7, 2026), the four parks' headliners averaged 53 min at midday, against 47 min on ordinary weekends (22 days) and 44 min on weekdays (60 days). Holiday weekends ran 6 minutes longer than an ordinary weekend.
Thanksgiving week 2026 (Nov 21–Nov 29, 2026) is outside SupaPark's detailed crowd forecast, which currently runs through Nov 11, 2026. Our long-range model, which is directional and not yet graded day by day, puts the week at an average crowd level of 8.2/10 across the four parks — busier than the rest of November in the same model (5.9/10). Busiest day: Thu Nov 26 (9.5); lightest: Sun Nov 29 (6.5).
Sun Nov 29, at an average level of 6.5/10 across the four parks in the long-range estimate. The busiest is Thu Nov 26 at 9.5/10.
Magic Kingdom, averaging level 7.2/10 over 9 days, versus 9.4/10 at EPCOT, the busiest park of the window. On the busiest day (Thu Nov 26) the lightest choice is Animal Kingdom at level 9.
On 5 nights in this window (Sun Nov 22, Tue Nov 24, Thu Nov 26, Fri Nov 27, Sun Nov 29) Magic Kingdom hosts Mickey's Very Merry Christmas Party, a separately ticketed party, and closes early to day guests. Some of these dates follow the typical party cadence and are not yet confirmed by Disney; the official party calendar takes precedence.
Days beyond the detailed forecast come from SupaPark's long-range model, which is directional (it ranks days against each other) and not graded day by day. The detailed, graded forecast covers about the next 31 days and should start covering Thanksgiving week around Oct 22, 2026; this page switches over automatically.
SupaPark measured Labor Day weekend 2026: headliners averaged 53 min at midday across the four parks, versus 47 min on ordinary weekends and 44 min on weekdays (Jul 17–Oct 11, 2026).
The crowd level is SupaPark's 1–10 scale of how busy a park feels. Inside the detailed forecast it is set from the forecast midday average posted wait of that park's headliners (1 = under 24 min, 2 = 24–29, 3 = 30–35, 4 = 36–41, 5 = 42–47, 6 = 48–54, 7 = 55–61, 8 = 62–68, 9 = 69–76, 10 = 77+ min); beyond it the long-range model bands its own daily index onto the same 1–10 scale. Over the last 30 days, SupaPark's park-level forecasts missed the measured headliner average by 8.8 min on average (18,019 graded park-hours) — see supapark.com/accuracy. Hard-ticket party dates come from Disney's published calendar where available; dates marked estimated follow the typical party cadence.
v_park_day_forecast), generated Oct 12, 2026, 1:33 PM ET.ext_party_days (official calendar, or typical cadence where Disney has not published dates).wait_halfhour_archive), Jul 17, 2026–Oct 11, 2026.